This is the Anthony’s Weather Lab newsletter which debuted last week. You can subscribe here.
It’s Monday, and while this newsletter will typically be sent on Tuesday, I’m coming into your inboxes a day early because of the Tropics.
History is on our side:
In a hurricane season full of oddities, perhaps it’s no shock that a November storm is now headed for the Gulf of Mexico. When the Hurricane Center’s cone includes southeast Texas, our worries naturally start to rise. The good news is history is on our side: Houston hasn’t been hit by a November storm since record-keeping began. (The latest storm to hit us was Hurricane Jerry, a Category 1 on October 15, 1991.) That being said, we’ll still need to watch this one closely. Here are my thoughts.
Strong November Gulf storms are rare:
Hurricane season officially runs through November 30, so it’s not entirely surprising we’re still tracking storms. What is a bit rarer, though, is tracking a hurricane moving into the Gulf of Mexico - which is likely to happen soon with what will be named Hurricane Rafael. The last November hurricane in the Gulf was in 1985. Hurricane Kate reached major Category 3 status in the Gulf before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle as a Category 2 storm on November 21. We haven’t seen a November hurricane in the Gulf since Kate, which was nearly 40 years ago.
Is there any way the storm comes to Houston?
In my experience, you never say never. Weather has a way of humbling even the most seasoned meteorologists, but there are a few factors working in our favor. First, Rafael is expected to reach hurricane status within the next 48 hours, and it could briefly become a major Category 3 storm as it moves into the Gulf. The Caribbean waters are still very warm, and wind shear remains low, both of which could strengthen the storm initially. However, as Rafael enters the Gulf, it will encounter stronger wind shear and cooler waters, which should help weaken it. The red color indicates strong winds.
Historically, one of the main reasons we don’t see storms hitting our area past October 15 is due to fall cold fronts. And fortunately, we have another front moving in on Tuesday. This front will stall near the coast, creating a block to prevent Rafael from heading directly our way. My only concern is that this front won’t stick around beyond Thursday, which could leave a slight opening. High pressure in the Atlantic is steering Rafael into the central Gulf of Mexico. The Storm Tracker 2 team will be watching this closely for you.
Where Rafael should end up:
Wind shear appears to be the primary steering factor for this storm. Once it encounters this shear, it should begin shifting eastward. Gulf water temperatures also play a role, with the path of least resistance currently pointing toward Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
An interesting twist comes from the European model, which projects a possible track toward Mexico. In the map below, you can see the blue area represents the potential for the rain to move across the southern Gulf. Although this is an outlier, it remains possible if the high pressure in the Atlantic loses its influence as the storm moves into the Gulf.
This may not be our last Gulf storm in November. While we watch what could be Rafael move toward land (you can see the model for Saturday below), another low currently east of Florida is moving toward the Sunshine State and could have an impact next week.
My next newsletter is slated for Friday, but if there are significant developments in the tropics, I’ll be back in your inbox sooner.
Until then, we’ll be updating you online at click2houston.com, on TV, and through the KPRC 2 Storm Tracker app - which you can download for free on your phone.
