Warmer water leading to stronger storms:
A groundbreaking study by Climate Central reveals that a warmer world intensified every Atlantic hurricane in 2024! Their analysis shows that elevated sea surface temperatures boosted maximum wind speeds for all eleven hurricanes by 9 to 28 miles per hour.
What struck me most was the finding that Beryl and Milton’s transformation into Category 5 storms would likely not have occurred without the influence of climate change.
Dr. Daniel Guilford, a scientist at Climate Central, was the lead author of this study. His work is based on what’s called attribution science, which examines how human activity influences extreme weather events. Simply put, Guilford compares historical storms and their weather conditions to today’s storms with past and current weather. Basically, if there wasn’t climate change what would this year’s storms look like.
Read the full report here: Climate change increased wind speeds for every 2024 Atlantic hurricane.
And it wasn’t just this hurricane season:
The study examined all Atlantic Basin hurricanes from 2019 to 2023 and found that maximum wind speeds intensified by an average of 18 miles per hour!
Of the 38 hurricanes analyzed, 30 reached intensities roughly one category higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale compared to their expected strength in a climate without human-caused changes.
This is the first climate and hurricane study to focus specifically on wind speeds. Previous research primarily investigated rainfall amounts or the number of storms.
Studying wind speeds in hurricanes is crucial because the potential damage from winds increases exponentially - by roughly four times - with each jump in storm category (1 to 5), according to NOAA. Even smaller increases in wind speed, without a category change, can significantly amplify potential damage.
Warmer seas fuel more intense hurricanes:
Do you remember how quickly Beryl intensified in the Atlantic? Or how Milton went from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane in less than 36 hours? Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index measures the influence of climate change on daily ocean temperatures, linking human-caused ocean warming to critical consequences like hurricane rapid intensification. Looking at Milton specifically the record-breaking Gulf waters were made 400-800 times more likely by climate change.
Attribution science states the record-breaking warm ocean temperatures, would be virtually impossible without the influence of carbon pollution.
What this means for hurricanes in the future:
For those of you are faithful KPRC 2 news viewers you probably noticed this hurricane season I often said something to the effect, “Here is the forecast for this storm... but in my experience, I think it will be one or two categories stronger at (this time.)” Without even reading this study, I knew most storms get stronger than the model forecast shows.
Another important takeaway, despite future hurricanes likely getting stronger and faster, it won’t translate to more storms. Long range climate models actually show fewer storms forming. However, the hurricanes that do form will have a greater potential to become extremely strong and violent due to warmer ocean waters. For example, if 10 storms form next year and five of them reach Category 3, 4, or 5 status, the impacts of the storms that make landfall will be significantly more severe.
We are the test subjects in this real-world study.
This newsletter goes out every Tuesday and Friday, but I am taking a bit of time off for the holidays. I’ll write again Tuesday, December 10. Until then, I hope you and yours have a very happy Thanksgiving!
