Tonight’s Forecast:
HOUSTON – One last look at the forecast before you head to bed; here’s what you need to know:
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The cold front has helped to spark up a line of storms for our northernmost counties. Some of them have been stronger in nature. The northeastern portion of Houston County is under a Special Weather Statement - a sub-severe advisory, until 1:30 a.m. for hail up to a quarter inch and 40 mph wind gusts. This storm is pushing to the southeast at 16 mph.
We’ve continued to keep the “lid” on the atmosphere over Houston, which has kept any storms in our viewing area from turning into severe weather makers. We’re still keeping an eye on the radar, and if thunderstorms can spark ahead of the approaching cold front into the evening and overnight hours, those will have the potential to pack some gusty winds and even the chance for large hail. Our risk outlook has not changed throughout the day - a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) for Brazos Valley and Piney Woods and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) along I-10.
Most of the newer model data over the last couple of hours has backed off on storms in the overnight hours for most - but the chance is still there. We still have almost all of the ingredients in place for impactful storms ahead of the front, we just need to break the “cap”. The cap is due to a temperature inversion - where the temperature increases with height which is the opposite of what is common in our atmosphere.
You can track radar here for the latest updates:
Weather Risk:
We’ll continue to track the chance for damaging winds, large hail, locally heavy rainfall, and a brief, isolated tornado can’t be ruled out - even though it’s a low 2% risk.
Simply put, we want to stay weather aware in the overnight hours as the severe weather risk continues.
Timeline of storms:
Here’s the thing: this is a conditional chance. If the “cap” can break, storms can form ahead and along the cold front. The timeline is from now until 4 a.m.
Monday’s Forecast:
As you wake up tomorrow morning, temperatures will still be mild, only dropping to the upper 60s, and even by the afternoon, you won’t even notice that we had a cold front. We’ll see temperatures top off in the mid 80s as we hit the peak heat of the day. Winds will shift to the southeast again and increase our humidity, which will stick around over the week.
10 Day Forecast:
The start of the week looks great! Temperatures in the 80s but we’ll feel the humidity in the air. We’ll keep watch for a couple more disturbances as they work their way in during the back half of the work week and into next weekend.
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