Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15.5W and continues southwestward to 05N24W. The ITCZ extends from 05N24W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 06N east of 30W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 35W and 59W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front remains across the northern Gulf from southeast Louisiana to NE Tamaulipas, Mexico. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are present N of 28.5N between southwest Louisiana and the western Florida Panhandle. Over the remainder of the basin, much drier and more stable atmospheric conditions prevail. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, including in the coastal plains of Mexico, and restricting visibility. Fresh to strong southeasterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of Yucatan Peninsula, especially south of 26N, and between 86W and 91W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through early Sun, then stall and weaken gradually through Mon. Upper-level disturbances moving from W to E across the Gulf coast states will maintain active weather over the northern Gulf through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin through early Sun, pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will develop again across the W Gulf Tue and Wed.

Caribbean Sea

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward to along about 60W and then westward along 24N-25N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, and fresh to strong SE winds west of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the areas described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker wind and slight to moderate sea are prevalent. Very dry and stable atmospheric conditions prevail across the entire basin, with no significant convection noted. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering the NW Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the basin will reorganize through Mon, and sustain strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun, reaching near gale-force into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will ridge westward Wed and Wed night leading to increasing trade winds over most of the central and eastern Caribbean. Dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is significantly reducing visibility across the Gulf of Honduras.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N61W to 27N70W, where it transitions into a stationary front to near Melbourne, Florida. A few showers are seen near the frontal boundary north of the NW Bahamas, while scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the front east of 65W. The rest of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic. The weak pressure gradient sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by the aforementioned subtropical ridge, centered on a 1022 mb high near 33N47W. South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found south of 17N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Saharan air dominates these waters between 35W and Africa. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon, with active weather expected to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected across most of the area through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A residual trough may linger from near 30N71W to the central Bahamas Wed and Wed night.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling