HOUSTON – Long-range computer models have started to pick up on excessive tropical moisture in the Gulf of Mexico next week, possibly developing a closed circulation of some sort by the weekend of Oct. 24.
Computer model runs this far out are notoriously unreliable but it's something we take note of and watch for changes or similarities on subsequent runs.
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We have been in a very dry pattern in Southeast Texas for the month of October. Only a trace of precipitation has been recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport since Oct. 1. That pattern will change starting next Tuesday as tropical moisture is drawn north.
All models are showing an increased rain chance through the middle and end of next week. This American Model shows the "possible" result of that system.
NOTHING indicates a certainty of any kind of tropical formation. But it is a reminder that hurricane season lasts another month and a half.