HOUSTON – A recent poll from the University of Houston shows a tight race for Houston mayor with two clear front runners.
The survey conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs found Texas Senator John Whitmire D-Houston and United States Rep. Shelia Jackson Lee D-Houston are ahead in a crowded race.
“The most likely scenario is that Sheila Jackson Lee and John Whitmire finish first and second in either order and then they go to a runoff in December that Whitmire wins,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.
Out of 800 Houstonians, it showed 34% of likely voters would choose Whitmire and 32% would vote for Jackson Lee. It showed no other candidate drew support from more than 3% of voters, and 22% are undecided.
Both Whitmire and Jackson Lee benefit from name recognition, but it also shows to be a downfall.
“Jackson Lee has a strong base of support among people who love her. She has high levels of rejection with close to half of likely voters saying they would not vote for her,” said Jones. “At the same time, John Whitmire is one of the few politicians in Texas that has majority approval amongst Democrats, Republicans and Independents.”
Republicans picked Whitmire with 56% while only 2% chose Jackson Lee.
In a mayoral runoff in December between the two, the survey found 51% would vote for Whitmire, 33% would pick Jackson Lee, 13% are undecided and 3% wouldn’t vote at all.
Jones said while a runoff is still five months away, things are unlikely to change significantly.
“Unless something happens to John Whitmire’s negatives which are very low in the teens, he’s likely to win any runoff against Sheila Jackson Lee simply because he’s the better liked candidate,” said Jones.
He said it’s tough to predict right now, but typically voter turnout is lower in mayoral elections than in midterm and presidential elections.
Senator Whitmire released a statement in a response to the survey:
“I am pleased by the support of so many Houstonians early in the campaign. Houstonians want a proven leader who understands the issues they care about, and I am pleased they trust me to make the tough and smart decisions to see that city government meets the expectations citizens have a right to expect in our great city. I am ready to get to work and together we will make Houston better.”
