HOUSTON – It’s been several months since we had an enhanced risk severe weather in the forecast, but that is exactly what meteorologists say could be in store for Thursday in the Houston area.
Recommended Videos
Forecasters at the National Weather Service say severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday. They also say with those thunderstorms will be the possibility of tornadoes.
The National Weather Service currently reports a level 3 enhanced risk for severe weather for areas just to the north of downtown Houston. This includes areas like The Woodlands, Spring, Conroe, Huntsville, and Livingston.
A level 2 slight risk encompasses the remainder of southeast Texas, with a level 1 marginal risk on the outskirts of that.
These risk areas show where forecasters are most confident in the possibility of severe weather Thursday. Don’t get hung up on any one particular risk area though, as severe storms are possible anywhere in the orange, yellow, or dark green shaded areas.
As for the tornado risk, the National Weather Service has a 10% risk for tornadoes in the yellow shaded region, which also aligns with where the enhanced risk of severe weather is. This will be the area where forecasters are most confident in the potential for tornadic activity. Once again, don’t get hung up on the yellow color, as a 5% tornado risk exists in the brown sections, and a 2% risk exists in the green.
The National Weather Service believes southeast Texas will likely see waves of storms throughout the day. There could be breaks in between storms. Southwestern areas should see the storms first in the morning and may extend into southeastern areas by early evening.
The weather service said although there is some uncertainty in how everything will evolve and if it will all come together, many ingredients will be in place to form rotating storms and tornadoes. The weather service said the areas which could have the highest possibility of seeing severe storms and tornadoes is if there are any breaks in cloud cover Thursday.
The weather service said vertical wind shear Thursday will be highly supportive of supercells and tornadoes. The one ingredient that forecasters are uncertain about is the amount of instability in the area. This is why areas that see breaks in the clouds tomorrow would have the highest risk of seeing severe weather as the sun will allow for more heating in the area and increase instability amounts.
Overall, the National Weather Service says their confidence is high for thunderstorms and rain, but lower for forecast details on severe thunderstorm and tornado development. If there are any sunny breaks in the clouds Thursday, the airmass would destabilize, increasing the risk of severe weather. However, that remains to be seen at this point.
Along with the severe weather threat, the weather service said there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. This isn’t a primary concern Thursday, but some areas could see some isolated street flooding in areas with poor drainage.
- BOOKMARK THIS: Exclusive KPRC 2 Flood Tracker
This isn’t a primary concern Thursday, but some areas could see some isolated street flooding in areas with poor drainage.
The KPRC 2 Storm Tracker Team will bring you live coverage throughout the storm threat Thursday.
If you lose power due to storms, you can stream us on a smart phone or tablet through our free KPRC 2+ app on your connected TV or smartphone.
Our live coverage can also be streamed at www.click2houston.com/watchlive