Colorado State University released an updated 2024 hurricane forecast, maintaining their predictions of an extremely active season in the Atlantic.
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“We anticipate that La Niña conditions will develop by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, likely resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. Sea surface temperatures averaged across the hurricane Main Development Region of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean remain at record warm levels. Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” the university said.
The university’s forecast continues to call for 23 named storms, with 11 becoming hurricanes and five becoming major hurricanes. The average from 1991-2020 is 14.4, 7.2, and 3.2.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” the university said.
You can read the full report and forecast from Colorado State University here.