Hurricane Beryl remains a major category 4 storm as of 10 p.m. Wednesday.
The island nation of Jamaica is feeling the impacts of Beryl Wednesday evening.
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Past that, she will be heading toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, crossing it and emerging in the Gulf of Mexico.
There have been some updates regarding the storm in the past 24 hours. Lets take a look.
Beryl’s Caribbean Impacts
Beryl remains a category 4 hurricane Wednesday evening with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. The 10 p.m. update has Beryl maintaining that wind speed, but further weakening is anticipated.
While it remains a major hurricane, wind shear has definitely begun to affect the storm over the last day. The wind speed has decreased a bit and the pressure has also risen.
On top of that, the effects of the shear can be seen on satellite images. Back when it was near the Lesser Antilles, Beryl had a very pronounced eye feature. Because of the wind shear, clouds have begun to make the eye less apparent and the storm has taken a more raggedy appearance.
Despite this, Beryl continues to remain a very strong storm and unfortunately for Jamaica, the island will have to bear the brunt of Beryl’s northern eyewall, the strongest part of the hurricane.
Once Beryl begins to move away from Jamaica, it will be heading toward the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane Warnings are in place for areas from Cancun all the way down to the border with Belize.
Wind shear is still forecasted to create a hostile environment for Beryl as it moves further west and more weakening is expected before it hits the Yucatan as either a category 1 or a category 2 storm.
Where is Beryl going after that?
After Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, it will enter the southwest Gulf of Mexico. While there is still uncertainty regarding Beryl’s final destination, which is reflected in the wide cone of uncertainty, models are starting to come into better agreement on where Beryl may ultimately make a final landfall.
The new GFS model has come closer to aligning with the European model, which shows a final landfall in northern Mexico on Sunday morning.
Likewise, the European model is also showing a landfall in northern Mexico. The main difference right now between the models is the timing with the GFS showing a landfall around 10 a.m. Sunday morning and the European model showing a landfall around 8 p.m. Sunday evening, a 12-hour difference. If this is the outcome that happens, southeast Texas may not have that many impacts besides the dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach and perhaps some rain from Beryl.
The strength of Beryl is also in question right now. Most of the models are showing a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane at the time of Beryl’s final landfall. This is taking into account slightly cooler water temperatures thanks to the recent storms, Alberto and Chris, which have been in that part of the Gulf. It is possible though that this could be more intense than what the models are showing. It’s not a guarantee, but it is possible.
So what will ultimately determine what happens? We have been talking about an area of high pressure, some would call it a heat dome, over the southern United States that will provide steering and decide where Beryl ends up.
The European model has shown a stronger ridge of high pressure which is also further west. If this were to happen, Beryl would get pushed further south and into Mexico, leaving most of the state high and dry.
By contrast, the American model is showing a weaker high pressure system which is also further east. If this were to play out, Beryl would have a path to be able to take a more northerly direction, increasing the chances of impacts in southeast Texas and making a Texas landfall more likely.
Overview
- Beryl remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane and will directly impact Jamaica today and tonight. It will then move west towards the Yucatan Peninsula and will make landfall late Thursday or early Friday morning. Further weakening is expected due to area of wind shear.
- Uncertainty remains as to where Beryl will ultimately make a final landfall, but models are starting to come into better agreement on a landfall in northern Mexico sometime on Sunday. If this were to happen, impacts to southeast Texas and the Houston area would be limited to higher surf and dangerous rip currents and perhaps some rain.
- Beryl remains a storm to keep an eye on and people should remain alert and prepared just in case things change.