Two days after the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, the dust has begun to settle, and the idea of another Donald Trump administration has shifted from a plausible projection to a solidified outcome.
President-elect Trump’s journey back to the White House was anything but tranquil. From the court proceedings in New York to the assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump was able to capture the attention of America.
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That awareness followed voters to the ballots, as the Republican nominee defeated Democrat and current Vice President Kamala Harris, winning both the electoral college and the popular vote—a feat he did not achieve during his first victory in the 2016 election.
SEE ALSO: How another Trump presidency will impact politics in Texas
This begs the question: how was Trump able to capture and keep so much momentum?
KPRC 2′s Michael Horton spoke with Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, to break down Trump’s victory.
Michael Horton: The first thing I want to ask you is, was there a moment Tuesday night when you really felt like the former president had won?
Mark Jones: When Florida went so quickly, and by such a large margin, that sent a pretty strong signal that things were looking good for Trump. And then, we started to see things sort of all fall into place, with him doing well in North Carolina and them calling that. [Him] having a notable lead in Georgia and then Pennsylvania looking good. Along with, you know, having a lead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and—at least in the early vote—doing pretty well in Virginia. So, the East Coast results all sort of signaled that it was likely to be a good night for Trump.
When I was looking at the start of the elections and the day before, I sort of was envisioning one of three scenarios.
- One, where we would know very early on Kamala Harris had won.
- One, where we’re going to know very early on that Trump had won.
- And one, where it looked like we were going to be in for an incredibly long night—if not a long week or two—relatively early on.
Early on, I don’t think I would have said it was going to be a good night for Trump, but it was clear it was not going to be a good night for Harris. The moment we saw the North Carolina, Georgia and Florida results, it was increasingly clear that Harris had one clear pathway to victory, and that was the blue wall.
That caused a shift in focus towards Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Once you counted that big Philadelphia influx, the early results were indicative of a close election in all three states. So, if Harris won, we were increasingly looking at the 272-268 scenario.
Michael Horton: Was there a particular moment that surprised you more than anything else on election night?
Mark Jones: I mean, what surprised me the most was not so much the national [results]. I mean, Trump’s margin of victory in Texas was surprising, but the poor Democratic performance in Harris County when that early vote came in was, I think, one of the more surprising things.
Michael Horton: How do you think Trump was able to [exceed expectations] in Harris County and Texas as a whole so convincingly?
Mark Jones: Well, Trump lost Harris County by five points, but it was a more narrow margin. You know, he lost by 13 points back in 2016. So, he definitely improved in Harris County.
I think there are sort of two principal factors. I think one, Republican voters were far more enthusiastic and mobilized than Democratic voters, and so there was a turnout differential. Then also, Latinos switched their allegiance or switched their vote to cycle pretty dramatically from Democratic to Republican in the presidential race—especially Latino men who, you know, four years ago, a majority of Latino men voted for Biden. This year, an overwhelming majority of Latino men voted for Trump. So, Trump went from losing the Latino vote by about, you know, 17 points in 2020, to winning it by 11 points in 2024.
Michael Horton: Do you think there was an outstanding reason for that?
Mark Jones: Well, principally Trump was speaking about the issues that mattered more to Latino voters, particularly non-college educated Latino voters, such as the economy, immigration, border security, and crime.
Whereas Harris was talking far more about esoteric issues, like the future of democracy and protecting democracy, or on issues that are not nearly as high a salience to Latino men such as abortion or abortion rights.
MORE WITH MARK JONES: Key Local Election Races and Ballot Issues: What’s at stake in Alvin ISD, Spring ISD, Sugar Land