AUSTIN, Texas – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) lead meteorologist told board members the weather pattern this winter appears more likely to support an extreme cold event.
Chris Coleman, ERCOT’s supervisor of operational forecasting, spoke before the board at a Dec. 3 meeting, presenting his outlook for winter weather across the state.
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“Extreme cold has impacted ERCOT more frequently in recent winters even though the winters as a whole have been frequently mild,” Coleman said.
Coleman says while recent winters have had above normal temperatures for the majority of the season, they have been marked by periods of extreme cold. He explained the threshold for an extreme cold event is considered to be temperatures hitting 21 degrees or less in Houston, 19 degrees or colder in Austin, or 14 degrees or colder in Dallas.
“You can have a warm winter in Texas and have a cold extreme and that is becoming more frequent,” he said.
Coleman said this threshold for an extreme cold event has been met five times in the last eight winters. In the 25 winters before the 2015-2016 season, the threshold was only met three times.
“We’re in a pattern right now where we get a warm, mild winter, more times than not we are seeing a cold extreme,” Coleman told board members. “Either mid or late winter would be the most likely time period if we do have a cold extreme event. Least likely in December, more likely if it happens January or February.”
Coleman compared the patterns he is seeing as we head into the winter season this year to the 2020-2021 season when Winter Storm Uri came through and caused massive blackouts across the state.
“This year has been very similar to that, now that doesn’t mean we are going to have Uri but it does again say we are in a pattern that supports something like a Uri this winter,” he said. “This is like a tornado watch doesn’t mean a tornado is going to happen, it means the conditions are there; same idea for cold weather extremes.”
ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas also stated the threat of power emergencies is up slightly from last winter because of higher demand for power. However, he also noted the demand has also been somewhat offset by the increase in generation storage capacity.
Vegas also emphasized since the implementation of weatherization standards and inspections after Winter Storm Uri, the grid overall is more reliable than it was.