HOUSTON – Most Houston Texans fans were glued to the Monday night football game even though the Texans were not playing. Had the Cincinnati Bengals beaten the Denver Broncos in that game, the Texans would have clinched the AFC South division title via the strength of victory tiebreaker.
This weekend’s matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars would have had no impact on the playoff picture for the Texans either as the AFC South winner is locked into the fourth seed.
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Since that did not happen, the Texans head into the final week of the season still looking to clinch the third playoff berth in team history. The odds are overwhelmingly in their favor for that to happen. Here’s the breakdown of how they can win the division.
The simplest way is to beat Jacksonville. Houston would finish 9-7 and have the best regard in the division, regardless of the outcome of the Indianapolis Colts game against Tennessee.
Houston also claims the division if the Colts lose. Indianapolis would finish the season with a 7-9 record.
So, Houston clinches the division in 1 of 3 ways:
Houston wins or ties,
OR Indianapolis loses or ties,
OR Houston clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over Indianapolis or clinches strength of victory tiebreaker Indianapolis.
If Houston loses and the Colts win, the teams would finish with identical records of 8-8.
Here’s how the series of tiebreakers would shake out:
Head-to-head: The Texans and Colts split their two meetings. TIED
Division record: The Texans and Colts would each have 4-2 division records. TIED
Common opponent record: Each team was 3-5 against their common opponents from the AFC East and NFC South. TIED
Conference record: Both teams would finish with 6-6 conference records. TIED
Strength of victory: There are five games on Sunday that will impact this tiebreaker. If any one of the five breaks the Texans' way, Houston would win this tiebreaker and win the division title.
Jets at Bills, noon
Patriots at Dolphins, noon
Saints at Falcons, noon
Ravens at Bengals, noon
Chargers at Broncos, 3:25 p.m.
The Texans would need a win or tie from the Jets, Patriots, Saints, Bengals or Chargers to clinch this tiebreaker and win the division.
If none of those teams win, then the Texans and Colts would finish with the same strength of victory and the next tiebreaker, strength of schedule, would be needed.
The only differences in strength of schedule come down to the games involving the Steelers, Broncos, Chiefs and Bengals. The Texans unique opponents (Chiefs & Bengals) are 21-9. The Colts unique opponents (Broncos and Steelers) are 20-10.
Steelers at Browns, noon
Ravens at Bengals, noon
Raiders at Chiefs, 3:25 p.m.
Chargers at Broncos, 3:25 p.m.
To reach this tiebreaker, it would already be assumed that the Bengals lose and the Broncos win. Houston claims the strength of schedule tiebreaker if Chiefs win or tie and Ravens win or tie, as long as both teams don’t tie. Ties could play a role in determining these six tiebreakers, and it is still possible the teams could remain tied and the next tiebreaker.
Best combined ranking among (AFC) conference teams based on point differential. Houston currently ranks well ahead of the Colts in this tiebreaker.
Bottom line is if the Texans and Colts finish 8-8, then Houston needs a win from any of the following teams to clinch the division: Bengals, Patriots, Saints, Jets, Chargers, Chiefs or Ravens.