Colorado State University released an updated 2024 hurricane forecast, maintaining their predictions of an extremely active season in the Atlantic.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and it’s expected to be a busy one.

Our chance of a storm or major hurricane almost doubles this year

Colorado State University has put out their first forecast for the 2024 Atlantic season. Remember, this is not a landfall forecast, this is a formation forecast. The forecast calls for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. This is well above average for a typical year.

Tropical storms have been hard to find but the season will get more active when September rolls around.

One study suggests the Bahama Islands have always depended on Saharan dust for sustainability.

Colorado State University ups its hurricane count for the season,

Where storms and hurricanes actually end up going is always the big question.

Universities and private forecasting companies have begun to issue their thoughts on just how active our upcoming Atlantic hurricane season will be and, generally speaking, most predictions are slightly above the average.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been oddly quiet.

In a recent webinar, Colorado State University hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach remarked that if the “busy” hurricane season is a bust then it would be largely due to the European heat wave. Given that, let me explain, so stick with me.

Federal meteorologists say this hurricane season may not be quite as busy as they initially thought, but it should still be more active than normal.

Get ready now for tropical storm season 2022....all the forecasts are predicting above normal numbers of hurricanes and the National Hurricane Center (part of NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association) came out yesterday with no exception:

Every year the seasonal hurricane forecasts start rolling in during April and this year they are all pointing to another busy season! An average season brings 14 storms of which 7 become hurricanes and 3 become major. This coming season looks to be above that average with as many as 20 storms and 5 major hurricanes, depending on who you ask. Here are some of the recent forecasts:

Last week at the National Tropical Weather Conference, Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University presented his 2022 Tropical Storm forecast. Accuweather had delivered theirs just a few days before. And while some headlines screamed “Monster season” most went with “busy” or “above normal”. You might remember that ‘normal’ recently increased from 12 storms to 14 and the considered average now is 14 tropical storms of which 7 will become hurricanes and 3 of those will become Major hurricanes of Category 3, 4 or 5. I made a chart of the two forecasts so far:

The forecast is in. It's going to be another busy hurricane season

Last Wednesday I blogged about the newest hurricane forecast from Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University. He is forecasting 17 storms of which 8 become hurricanes and 4 become major (Cat 3) hurricanes. A lot of research goes into his prediction and, as I discussed, a couple of important factors are the state of La Nina/El Nino and the temperatures of the Atlantic ocean waters. Specifically, presence of La Nina = a Busy season and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures = a Busy season. We have both a weak La Nina and the warm water, thus, his forecast of 17-8-4 is above the average season of 14-7-3.

Regardless of average, this looks to be a busy year.

Already smashing records, this years hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season is about to get even nastier, forecasters predict. The agency increased the chance of an above average hurricane season from 60% to 85%. Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season forecasts decades ago, on Wednesday amped its forecast to 24 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes all higher than their June forecast. An average year, based on 1981 to 2010 data, is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. There are 21 names assigned to a hurricane season.

HOUSTON – Today, Colorado State University hurricane researchers led by hurricane expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach, have increased their 2020 hurricane forecast to the following:The new updated July hurricane forecast for 2020We have already had five named storms as of the Fourth of July weekend, so according to the new updated hurricane forecast, we could see an additional 15 named storms before the end of the season! One of the fuels for an active hurricane season is warmer than average Atlantic Ocean waterActive Western Africa monsoon season:The current forecast for the monsoonal season across Western Africa is trending to be a wetter (more active) season than usual. These are important because a generally strong La Niña pattern lends itself to a more active tropical season by history. Conversely, an El Niño pattern generally is seen during less active tropical seasons. We’ll continue to see more updates to the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane seasonal forecast this August as well.