The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and it’s expected to be a busy one.
Colorado State University’s hurricane outlook calls for 23 named storms, 11 of which will become hurricanes, and five becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). Compare that to the average of 14-7-3 and the season ahead is looking a lot like the very busy 2020 season when we had 30 tropical systems form.
Other outlooks are also calling for a record number of storms.
What is the reason for such high numbers of predicted storms? One of the main reasons is the higher than normal sea surface temperatures.
Right now off the coast of South America in the Pacific Ocean, we are seeing a La Nina signal. This is cooler than average temperatures. By contrast, in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the Atlantic Ocean, we are seeing above average sea surface temperatures.
Temperatures from the Gulf into the Caribbean and out into the Atlantic are already in the mid-80s. These are temperatures you usually see in late July into August and it is only the beginning of June.
On top of that, when you look at something called the Ocean Heat Content, which is how deep that warm water goes, we have very deep, warm waters in the Caribbean leading into the Gulf of Mexico.
This warm water makes it really easy for storms to get going and if they do, they have the potential to rapidly intensify.
With La Nina conditions beginning to set in, wind shear is also lower in the Gulf and Caribbean, which means storm development is more likely to happen should any systems form.
So while the tropics are quiet for now, the season is expected to be a busy one. As a reminder, we typically see our peak activity between Mid-August to Mid-October.
