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Cat 5 Hurricane Beryl - How close can it get to Houston?

Firecracker hot this 4th of July

10pm update Monday with 160 mph winds (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)
Tuesday’s Forecast:

Monday was our hottest day of the year with Houston reaching 99°. I don’t see much of a change tomorrow. Feels like temperatures climb between 104°-108°. The heat advisory only includes our northern and eastern cities.

Temperatures will be near the century mark. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

There is a heat advisory in place for areas NE of Houston from noon through 7PM Tuesday. It can feel up to 109 degrees with the humidity.

Heat advisories are in place NE of Houston Tuesday. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)
Tracking hurricane Beryl:

At 10:00 PM Monday Beryl became a monster category 5 Hurricane. This is the earliest a cat 5 has formed since Emily July 17, 2005. Beryl is pushing to the WNW through the Caribbean.

No description found
Cat 5 July 17, 2005 (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)
Can Beryl make it to Texas?

There are two major factors with Beryl making a track toward Texas. The first thing I’m watching is where Beryl will be Wednesday afternoon. If Beryl makes a direct hit on Jamaica that shows it following a northern path. That northern path makes it easier for Beryl to keep moving north.

Beryl will reach Jamaica by Wednesday. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

The second key is the weather pattern next week. A ridge of high pressure builds over the western United States. The high near Texas today, weakens and shifts slightly east. This creates a weakness near South Texas. A trough in the state could pull Beryl north. The only way this happens is if Beryl is close enough to get picked up. But my point is there is a chance.

Weather pattern next week (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

We could start feeling the effect of Beryl Sunday. The farther north it tracks the more rain we’ll get and storms from tropical moisture could start as early as Sunday.

A slight turn to the north (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)
Independence Day Forecast:

The 4th is firecracker hot! A heat advisory is possible with temperatures in the mid-90s. Thankfully we do not have any burn bans in place for SE Texas for the first time in two years on the 4th of July! Make sure you check with your county before you shoot off any fireworks.

4th of July Forecast (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

Need swimming lessons? Houston area locations for children, adults you can dive into 🏊

10-Day Forecast:

We are in a summer pattern with almost daily rain chance and hot temperatures. Mornings will be incredibly warm in the lower-80s and upper-70s. Make sure you are drinking plenty of water!

Temperatures will be HOT this weekend. (Copyright 2024 by KPRC Click2Houston - All rights reserved.)

About the Author
Anthony Yanez headshot

Chief meteorologist and recipient of the 2022 American Meteorological Society’s award for Excellence in Science Reporting by a Broadcast Meteorologist.