HOUSTON – We’re in the middle of August and the tropics are heating up with Tropical Storm Ernesto forming today.
The Azores High (aka the Bermuda high) will help steer this storm north away from the United States. The trough along the east coast also pushes this east. The path of least resistance is near Bermuda.
Several U.S. territories will be impacted. The National Weather Service has issued Tropical Storm Warnings for the United States Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with tropical storm force winds possible from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday.
Strong winds and flooding rains will be the biggest issue. Forecast rainfall will bring 4-6″+ to the region depending on where the center of the track sets up.
Late Tuesday night into early Wednesday, Ernesto will be on or near Puerto Rico. Once the storm moves away from San Juan it should strengthen to a category 1 hurricane. By late week, the storm will strengthen again to a category 2 or 3 as it approaches Bermuda.
The rest of the tropics are quiet for now.