Making sure you are aware:
After a brief lull in hurricane activity, the tropics are starting to come alive again. I’m tracking two disturbances in the Atlantic that are moving west.
Disturbance #1 is the one we are concerned with. This tropical wave over the central Atlantic is moving west 10-15mph. It should gradually develop and could become a tropical depression or storm early next week. When and if it becomes a tropical storm it would get the name Francine. This would occur near the Lesser Antilles. We have plenty of time to watch what happens with disturbance #2.
Why we need to watch this one:
If it gets to the western Caribbean it could strengthen and move into the Gulf of Mexico. The European model shows a well formed center of circulation Sunday September 8th. The American model shows nothing forming when this article was written.
Because we are basically a week and a half out from this being near the Gulf of Mexico we can only look at probabilities how strong it will be and where it will be. The below image is the probability this will become a hurricane. As of Thursday night August 29th, the chance is 10%-20%. The main reason this is low is because we are so far out in time. But this graphic is showing it is possible. It is also showing where it may be, and as you can see it has a large range from Mexico, the Gulf to the southeastern United States.
And what about the Gulf?
One of the few data sources that goes out two weeks is the European Artificial Intelligence model. The AI model has not done well this hurricane season. It badly missed Beryl’s placement and hasn’t been much better since. But if you are wondering, the AI model has the storm hitting Louisiana Thursday September 12th.
Track this storm with us. We’ll keep you posted daily on its movement and intensification.
