Friday’s Forecast:
HOUSTON – We will start the day with some patchy dense fog and we’ll likely see this pattern repeat through the weekend as well. Otherwise, we’re back to near record heat for the afternoons with mostly sunny skies.
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Severe drought now present in SE Texas:
Another week has passed in southeast Texas without any rainfall. In Houston, our last measurable rainfall was on Sept. 25 (29 days ago), but our last significant rainfall (over a quarter inch) was on Sept. 6 (48 days). It is no surprise that that drought monitors this week had our conditions worsening. We were hot and dry. The biggest change is that 15% of southeast Texas is now considered in a “severe drought.”
In a severe drought, you can have crop or pasture loss, and the fire risk is much higher. We also saw our moderate drought increase by 22%, which means 88% of our area is now considered under at least a moderate drought.
The biggest change in the drought is seen in our western counties. Severe drought is now present in Waller, Austin, Washington, Western Grimes, Southern Brazos and Burleson counties.
We also saw a large change for our northeast counties. You can see that San Jacinto, Polk, Trinity, Eastern Walker, and Houston counties are all now considered in a moderate drought. This is particularly alarming because of how much rainfall we saw in this region in early May. Check out this drone video from the extreme flooding in Livingston just five months ago.
The Winter Outlook for southeast Texas shows below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures in the area through the winter months. Unfortunately, this means we will likely see our drought worsen in the coming weeks and months. A big reason why we are expecting to be drier and warmer is because of a La Niña winter in the forecast. You can read more about what that typically does to our winters here.
If we do not see any rainfall next week, this will go down as the driest October on record for Houston.
We’re locked into a pretty dry pattern this week, so we don’t expect to break into the drought anytime soon. Big domes of high pressure are dominating the overall weather pattern for the foreseeable future, likely going well into next week.
Next Rain Chance:
We really need rainfall here in SE Texas. We are tracking the potential for some rainfall around Halloween next week. The chance is 30% on Wednesday and 20% on Thursday.
Although we are tracking rainfall, it is not a significant amount. The QPF has a hundredth of an inch, but it’s better than nothing.
Tracking the Tropics:
There is no tropical development expected in the next seven days. Hurricane season runs through November 30th, but in recorded history SE Texas has never had a storm hit past October 15th. The reason is our cold fronts block storms from moving north. Fronts steer them east.
10-day Forecast:
There are several days we get near 90° this week with highs in the upper-80s and mostly sunny skies. Thankfully, we are forecasting a chance for rainfall as we look ahead to the middle of next week. Although it would be a bummer for trick-or-treaters, any rainfall would be beneficial to our soil.
