The National Hurricane Service has now issued an update on Potential Tropical Storm Cyclone One.
A Tropical Storm Watch has now been issued for parts of our viewing area until Monday 9:55.
We’ll continue to watch for potentially life-threating flash and urban flooding for parts of the Texas coast moving eastward into central Mississippi through Thursday. Widespread small stream and minor river flooding is expected along the Texas coast into SW Louisiana with isolated areas of significant flooding possible on the Texas and Louisiana Coasts.
As we track flash flood warnings for parts of Montgomery until 1:30 pm. If you live in this area, it’s important to avoid the roadways because of the higher rainfall rates. And that’s why we say Turn Around Don’t Drown - even shallow-looking water is extremely dangerous.
You can however track LIVE radar right here at anytime
FLOOD WATCH:
The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch through Thursday morning for much of Southeast Texas, warning that excessive rainfall could lead to flash flooding, flooded roads, and rising water levels in creeks, bayous, rivers, and other low-lying areas.
A dangerous flooding setup is unfolding across Southeast Texas this week as a stalled front, deep tropical moisture, and a disturbance near the Gulf combine to bring multiple rounds of heavy rainfall to the region.
Today’s Forecast:
Shower and storm chances increase Tuesday morning, mainly south of I-10 to start. These showers will bring the potential for heavy rainfall and frequent lightning strikes.
Here is a preview of today’s timeline - locations and timing can change, but this gives you a better understanding of our weather pattern today.
- 2 pm: Thunderstorms north of I-10, spotty storms on the west side of the map
- 5 pm: A little more widespread through the pm hours.
Tuesday afternoon, the rain will continue to develop north of I-10 as a stalled boundary and tropical moisture combine. Evening hours showers begin to wind down.
Tuesday’s Flood Risk:
The flood threat ramps up Tuesday as deep tropical moisture continues streaming into Southeast Texas. Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day, with the greatest flooding concern focused near and south of Houston. Rainfall rates could be intense at times, leading to localized street flooding and rapidly changing road conditions.
Wednesday’s Flood Risk:
Depending on where the tropical disturbance tracks, Wednesday could be one of the highest-impact days of the week. The combination of a stalled front and a nearby tropical disturbance could lead to repeated rounds of heavy rain, especially across the Houston metro, Galveston Bay region, and areas east of the city. Flash flooding becomes a more significant concern as rain accumulates and soils become increasingly saturated.
Thursday’s Flood Risk:
By Thursday, the disturbance is expected to begin shifting eastward toward Louisiana, but a flood threat will remain across Southeast Texas. The greatest concern may gradually shift toward Chambers County, Liberty County, Beaumont, and Port Arthur, though heavy rain could still impact parts of the Houston area. Any locations that received significant rainfall earlier in the week will be more vulnerable to flooding.
Friday’s Flood Risk:
The overall flood threat should continue decreasing on Friday as the system pulls farther east. Conditions should gradually improve heading into the weekend, but some lingering water issues could persist where the heaviest rain fell earlier in the week.
Potential Tropical Storm Arthur:
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance over northeastern Mexico that could move into the northwestern Gulf later this week. Development is possible, with a 60% chance of formation within the next 7 days and a 60% chance within the next 48 hours. If a tropical storm forms, it would likely be short-lived as it moves near the Texas or Louisiana coast.
Regardless of whether this system becomes a named storm, the primary concern for Southeast Texas is rainfall-related flooding. A stalled front combined with deep tropical moisture will bring multiple rounds of heavy rain through at least Thursday. Forecast models indicate some areas could receive 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals possible. Flash flooding, flooded roads, rising bayous and creeks, and localized impacts to homes and neighborhoods are all possible, especially where heavier rain bands repeatedly move over the same locations.
Forecast rainfall totals generally range from 3 to 7 inches across Southeast Texas through the end of the week, but some locations could see significantly higher amounts if heavier rain bands repeatedly move over the same area. Rainfall rates may exceed 2 to 4 inches per hour at times, which can quickly overwhelm drainage systems and lead to flash flooding. Because the exact location of the heaviest rain remains uncertain, everyone across Southeast Texas should stay weather aware, monitor forecast updates, and avoid driving through flooded roadways. Remember: Turn Around, Don’t Drown. Floodwaters can be deeper than they appear, and it only takes a small amount of moving water to sweep away a vehicle.
10-day forecast:
Rain and storm chances continue through the late week. By the weekend, southeast Texas dries out, but the heat and humidity will return swiftly.