Special Features

Tropical Depression Sara is centered near 17.4N 89.0W at 17/1800 UTC or 50 nm W of Belize City, moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 12 ft. Scattered moderate convection is inland over Belize, Honduras, and the Yucatan Peninsula. A turn northwestward or north- northwestward with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move further inland over the Yucatan Peninsula today before it opens up into a trough by tonight or tomorrow. Weakening is forecast as the storm moves further inland, and Sara is expected to become a remnant low before it opens up into a trough over the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or on Monday. Through the early part of this week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Sara NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N54W to 20N70W across northern Hispaniola to just south of the the Windward Passage at 19N75W. Significant swell behind the front is diminishing, but seas 12 ft or greater in westerly swell persists north of 26N between 56W and 62W. Swell period is 12-14 seconds. Elsewhere, seas greater than 8 ft in similar W to NW swell are north of a line from 31N54W to 20N68W to 27N77W to 31N73W. The front is forecast to weaken today and seas are expected to subside below 12 ft this evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The Monsoon Trough is inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 08N13W to 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm north and south of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of Mexico

High pressure centered over the SE United States dominates the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE return flow. Seas are 3-6 ft, with highest seas in the NW Gulf and SE Gulf, including within the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh to strong from near the Yucatan Channel to the NW Gulf coast tonight through Mon. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night, reaching from SW Louisiana to near Tamaulipas, Mexico early Tue, then from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed. Reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas are forecast across the basin Wed night as the front pushes SE of the basin. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Sara is forecast to move over the Yucatan Peninsula today, dissipating before it reaches the eastern Bay of Campeche Mon.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on TROPICAL DEPRESSION SARA.

Away from Sara, a cold front extends from northern Haiti just south of the Windward Passage to Grand Cayman Island. Fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the front, including within the Windward Passage as captured on scatterometer data this morning. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 17N between 80W and 84W. In the NW Caribbean, E winds are fresh to strong and seas are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, trades are light to gentle and seas are 3-5 ft, except 5-7 ft in Atlantic Passages due to arriving northerly swell.

For the forecast, Sara will move inland near 17.8N 89.6W this evening, become a remnant low and move to 19.5N 91.5W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening. Meanwhile, a cold front from the SE coast of Cuba to along 19N has fresh to strong winds behind it. The front will shift SE while weakening through the early part of the week with fresh to strong pulsing winds across the approaches to Atlantic Passages and in the Lee of Cuba through early Tue. Large N swell will continue to support to rough seas through the Atlantic passages through early Mon. The next cold front may slip SE of the Yucatan Channel by mid-week with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras late Thu.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT.

Just ahead of the cold front, scattered moderate convection is north of 18N between 45W and 60W. Scattered moderate convection is also just east of the Lesser Antilles from 08N to 16N between 55W and 60W. 1014 mb high is centered in the eastern Atlantic north of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic, with 4-7 ft seas. Seas are locally 8 ft near 12N50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 24N55W to near the Anegada Passage early Mon, dissipating over the SE waters thereafter. Very rough seas is following the front and will continue through this afternoon. A reinforcing front or trough may clip the NE waters on Tue, with increasing winds and building seas. The next cold front may move off the SE United States Wed night, with another round of increasing winds and building seas. This front may reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas late Thu.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mahoney