Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from Senegal near 14N17W to 04N27W. The ITCZ continues from 04N27W to the coast of Brazil near 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 12W and 42W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front just N of the area over the U.S. Is inducing scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. Mainly fresh winds dominate the central Gulf, with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central basin and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, an inverted trough may develop over the western Gulf early this week where it may linger through at least mid- week. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are expected across the northern Gulf over the next few days. Mainly moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, pulsing to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the subtropics and lower pressure over South America is leading to moderate to fresh trades over much of the basin. Strong SE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Colombia. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring in the areas of strong winds, with 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Carribbean in association with monsoon trough, S of 12N and W of 79W.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support strong to near gale E to SE winds near the Gulf of Honduras, with fresh to strong winds expected in the south-central basin through most of the week. Seas will build through the week as a result of the increasing winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through most of the week. Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America continues across some areas of the northwestern Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front has stalled from 31N60W to 27N79W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 29N55W to 22N66W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with these features N of 22N between 50W and 66W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted near the front mainly north of 28N and between 58W and 68W. Seas in these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere west of 50W, while moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail east of 50W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad 1030 mb high pressure system centered to the west of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressures in northwest Africa result in fresh to strong northerly winds north of 16N and east of 21W. Seas in the area described are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken and dissipate by Tue. High pressure will build in its wake. Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are forecast offshore N Florida by Tue ahead of another possible cold front. That front may reach from near 31N76W to 27N80W by early Thu, weakening and stalling from 31N69W to near Fort Pierce, Florida by early Fri. Conditions around the front will improve by late Fri.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik